A data based approach using a global dataset by Our World in Data
The vaccination campaigns started around three months ago already and with so many information in the media, it may be difficult to get the big picture.
A range of vaccines created with different cutting-edge technologies is being used all around the globe. But how many are there? And who is using which?
Immunization may be our rescue, it can reduce the opportunity for the virus to spread, but for this to happen the majority of people has to be vaccinated. So, where are we after three months? And when will we be close to bring this pandemic to an end, if the campaigns will have the same growth rhythm?
I have found on Kaggle data collected by Our World in Data, which is tracking the vaccinations around the world and I tried to answer my questions. All findings are based on this data and you can find my code here.
How many types of vaccines are being used?
There is a range of vaccines that are administrated around the world. More accurately, in the first three months of the vaccination campaigns eight different types of vaccines were used. Some countries are using just one type while others are accepting several.
In Northern America they are using Pfizer and Moderna; in Russia only Sputnik is available at the moment, while in Europe there are used mostly Pfizer, Moderna, but also AstraZeneca.
Below there’s a summary for each country:
Where are vaccinated more people per day?
To answer to this question I looked at the number of daily vaccinations, which represent the number of new vaccine doses administrated in a day. Below is a visualization of the evolution of daily vaccinations over time in each continent with available data in the dataset I used.
It can be noticed that over time, the number tends to go up, which means that overall, in the world there is an ascending trend when it comes to new doses administrated.
So far, the most vaccinations in just one day in a country were administrated in China (~1.9M), followed by the United States (~1.7M) and then the United Kingdom (~450k). In South America, the most people vaccinated in a day were in Brazil (~260k), while in Africa the maximum daily vaccinations was reached in Morocco (~180k).
On average, the most people vaccinated per day are in the United States, followed by China and India.
Where is the vaccination program more advanced?
We’ve seen where are vaccinated more people per day, but in terms of total people vaccinated per hundred, how is it going?
When it comes to the percentage of people vaccinated, after three months Israel is the leader, followed by Seychelles(that has only ~98k inhabitants) and then by the United Kingdom.
The first two already have 25% of the population immunized, but when can the other countries reach the same performance? Assuming the trend will be similar to the one we had so far, I got the predictions below for countries in Europe and the US:
According to similar predictions, a number of European countries like Spain, Portugal, Croatia or Italy will have under 10% of the population vaccinated until summer.
The world is doing a great job bringing this pandemic to an end and the medical progress is impressive. However, we noticed that it is a real challenge to make the vaccines available all over the globe and that there is a difference between the progress in each continent.
According to my predictions, a lot of countries would reach the 25% of population vaccinated threshold only at the end of this year or even in 2022. This won’t be ideal, but maybe in the near future we will witness day by day improvements when it comes to the availability of the vaccine and the number of people vaccinated in a day. Also, the fact that more types of vaccines are tested, accepted and used in the world can strengthen our hope to go back to a normal life.
Until then, take care, don’t forget to wear a mask and hold on, because the end of this pandemic may be closer than we imagine.